New Delhi: Pollsters were split in their prediction for Jharkhand, with one giving a clear majority to the INDIA bloc, two others giving a majority to the NDA and another two predicting a hung house. The majority mark in the 81-member Jharkhand assembly is 42.

The Times Now-JVC exit poll predicted 40-44 seats for BJP-led NDA and 30-40 for INDIA bloc comprising the ruling JMM-Congress combine and their smaller allies. Dainik Bhaskar, too, predicted a hung house with 37-40 seats for the NDA and 36-39 for the INDIA bloc.

The only outlier, among the five exit polls factored, was Axis My India which predicted a thumping majority for INDIA bloc with 49-59 seats and only 17-27 seats for BJP and its allies.

The ruling coalition led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and its most prominent face, Chief Minister Hemant Soren, dealt a blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the general election, winning all five Lok Sabha seats in the state reserved for tribals.

Following Hemant’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on 31 January under the PMLA, his wife Kalpana Soren led from the front. Touring the state, she launched a scathing attack against the BJP government at the Centre, accusing it of not doing enough for the Adivasi community, and ‘misusing’ central agencies to target political opponents.

With Hemant having walked out of jail on bail in June, the JMM tried to keep up the momentum by focusing its campaign for the assembly elections on his arrest—repeatedly terming it an assault of tribal leadership.

On its part, the BJP centred its assembly poll campaign on the issue of the state’s shrinking tribal population, coupled with the claim of rampant cross-border infiltration in Santhal Pargana region. The BJP’s campaign was spearheaded by Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma and Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi also addressing multiple public meetings.

According to the 2011 census, tribals account for at least 26.2 percent of the state’s overall population.

Voting in Jharkhand was held in two phases, 13 and 20 November. Counting of votes, along with Maharashtra and 12 states where bypolls were held simultaneously, is scheduled for 23 November. In the 2019 assembly elections, JMM-Congress-RJD coalition secured 47 of the state’s 81 assembly seats, while the BJP saw its numbers dip from 35 in 2014 to 25.

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