After more than a decade of legal proceedings, the long-awaited distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from the Mt. Gox exchange collapse has commenced, according to Glassnode Insights. This event represents a significant milestone for creditors who have been fighting for reimbursement since the exchange’s collapse in 2013.

Mt. Gox Distribution Arrives

The total recovered coin volume stands at over 141,686 BTC, with just under 59,000 BTC already redistributed to creditors. The remaining 79,600 BTC is expected to be distributed soon. Kraken and Bitstamp have been designated as the exchanges responsible for this redistribution, with Kraken receiving 49,000 BTC and Bitstamp 10,000 BTC in the first tranche.

Comparing the year-to-date distribution size from the Mt. Gox estate to other large entities, these distributions are already larger in scale than ETF inflows, issuance to miners, and sell-offs by the German government.

Market Impact and Investor Behavior

From a psychological perspective, this distribution marks the final chapter in a major market overhang that has persisted since 2013. The impact on the market has been closely monitored, with the Bitcoin price trading between $66,000 and $68,000 throughout the distribution process. This suggests a lighter-than-expected sell-side pressure and a resilient demand profile.

Interestingly, the creditors chose to receive BTC rather than fiat, a new concept in Japanese bankruptcy law. Given the decade-long legal battle, it is assumed that many creditors remain active in the Bitcoin space. Consequently, it is likely that only a subset of these distributed coins will be sold on the market.

HODLing Trend

The distribution pressure from long-term holders (LTH) remains relatively light and is declining. Currently, LTHs hold 45% of the network wealth, a figure that is relatively high compared to levels seen near macro cycle tops. This indicates that long-term holders are in HODL mode, waiting for higher prices to divest.

The proportion of wealth held by new investors is declining and is well below the levels typically seen at macro market tops. This highlights a general shift back towards HODLing behavior and a slowdown in new demand since Bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,000.

Summary and Conclusions

The Mt. Gox distribution is a significant victory for creditors who have fought for reimbursement in BTC. Despite the potential for sell-side pressure, the profile of the creditors suggests they are more likely to be long-term holders. This, coupled with the growing balance sheet of long-term holders, indicates that HODLing remains the dominant market behavior.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

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