For the BJP, the biggest challenge is the anti-incumbency of 10 years when M.L. Khattar headed the government. And this is despite the people agreeing that the ruling party gave a transparent, corruption-free rule with no major scams rocking the administration.
Many of the decisions taken by Khattar have made the BJP government unpopular although Saini is getting sympathy for making pro-people decisions in the past four months. His easy going nature and accessibility to the people, unlike Khattar, often come up in conversations on the ground.
The BJP is hoping that a split in Jat votes by raking up the narrative of Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s dominance, OBC polarisation, and the people’s sympathy for Saini would stem the surge of the Congress in Haryana.
The dominant Jats are polarised in anticipation of Hooda becoming the chief minister this time. In 2019, the BJP’s erstwhile ally the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) had helped it by dividing Jat votes from Hooda by getting 15 percent of vote and 10 assembly seats. The comfort is no more there, with the JJP now stands largely discredited due to its alignment with the BJP during the farm protests.
Sympathy for Saini
In Ladwa constituency, where Saini is contesting again, ThePrint came across three-four villagers sipping tea. As they sat chatting at a roadside stall, an autorickshaw with a poster of BJP rebel Sandip Garg passed by them.
Contesting as an Independent, Garg is likely to damage BJP’s Vaishya vote is what the villagers discuss among themselves.
One of the villagers, Ratilal Kewat is sympathetic towards Saini, who was made the chief minister before the Lok Sabha polls by replacing Khattar in March.
“Nayab Saini did not get time to prove himself. But in four months, he has taken many decisions. Since the chief minister is contesting here, it will be seen as the CM’s seat and development will be more. I will vote for Saini,” the OBC farmer, told ThePrint.
His fellow farmers Dipu and Karm Singh Mallah nodded in approval of Ratilal’s endorsement of Saini.
“The BJP government has done many things for the poor. They provided free rations, made bus service free and made the redressal system easier by providing online getaways,” Dipu said.
“During the Congress’ time,only a few people got naukri (jobs). The BJP government made employment transparent. The new CM got very less time. I have heard that Saini meets people even at night … Khattar didn’t used to meet people. Officers used to run the government in Khattar’s time.”
Not everyone is convinced about the performance of the then Khattar administration.
Ajay Kumar, an OBC, said that not much development has taken place in the past 10 years. “‘Modi ji theek hai Delhi mein par yaha badlav chaiyan’ (It is fine having Modi in Delhi, but change is required here) He has enhanced the prestige of Indians abroad. A strong leader should be there at the Centre; I voted for Modi in the Lok Sabha polls but the assembly elections need ‘badlav’. ‘Ho gaya dus saal’ (Ten years are done).”
In Ganaur village of Sonipat, the mood is also about the time for change, a fresh start.
Krishna (who goes without surname) said that he would vote for the Congress this time for ‘badlav’ . Like Ajay Kumar, Krishna cast ballot in favour of the BJP in the general elections.
“But nothing has changed. The road conditions are bad. There are no jobs. Both my sons have no jobs despite passing with good results and having degree,” the middle-aged OBC man said, while waiting in a local market.
Rohtas Jangia, an OBC, emphatically said that he would not vote for the BJP this time even if chief minister Saini sought his vote.
“What has changed for the poor in 10 years? Back then I was a labourer and I remain so even now. My income has not gone up, and my son has no job. I will vote for ‘badlav’ although the CM is a good man.“
What bolsters this undercurrent is that there is no word about Khattar, a Union minister, on the ground. The irony is that the BJP is forced to reach out to the electorate with the results it put up when Khattar was the chief minister.
Apart from the farm protests, Khattar’s strong-arm tactics to restrict the movement of farmers and taking punitive action using tear gas and pellet guns have made him unpopular among the agrarian community.
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Scheme turns into headache
Launched in 2020 and implemented in September 2021, the Parivar Pehchan Patra scheme has over the time become a source of discomfiture for its beneficiaries.
Enrollment in PPP is a must for availing various social security schemes. But its implementation—be it data collection, or glitches, and changed rules—has affected many of its targeted receivers, i.e., the poor and disadvantaged.
The Congress has renamed it as ‘Permanent Pareshani Patra’ and announced to scrap the scheme once in power.
Villager Pramod Nishad from Nadwan said that the PPP’s idea was good, but its implementation was done badly.
“When my income showed a jump from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 5 lakh on the portal, we visited a Common Service Centre. The issue remains unresolved. The staff there sought one document and another, I have stopped going … What was the need for the government to have another set of identification numbers when there are so many cards already there,“ Nishad, who is dependent on agriculture, told ThePrint.
Sanjay Tyagi of Gunjur village was blunt in his assessment of the PPP scheme. “If there is one scheme that should be held responsible for the BJP’s defeat, its Parivar Pehchan Patra,“ the Brahmin villager said.
Satish Poonia, BJP in-charge for Haryana, conceded that the PPP rollout was “not implemented like it was envisioned and that it has become a challenge”.
Khattar’s image a problem
As the BJP is also trying to muster numbers by splitting non-Jat votes, its weak link is Khattar. At a time when the BJP is prominently using Saini, an OBC, in its campaign to consolidate its non-Jat votes, Khattar who was not sent to campaign in initial first few days, has been deputed to campaign mostly in non-Jat areas and the Punjabi belt to avoid sharp reaction from the Jat community.
When the BJP manifesto was launched in presence of BJP president J.P. Nadda, Khattar was present but he did not speak a single word. Similarly when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kurukshetra for his first rally, Khattar was absent there as well in the PM’s second rally in Sonipat.
His name did not find place in the four-page BJP pamphlets distributed across 90 constituencies highlighting the difference with the Congress governance.
“Wherever Khattar will go, he will reduce the vote of candidates. That is why the BJP high command deputed Khattar to use his influence to mollify dissidents and rebels,” a BJP senior leader of Haryana told ThePrint.
“Now as only one week is left, the party is using him selectively as his presence and speech can damage more… In Ambala, he said that farmers who are sitting on the border are not farmers. The Congress used his statement to infuriate farmers, who already are annoyed. Such statements should be avoided.”
At the party office in Sonipat, a BJP leader asserted that even party workers are not happy with Khattar. “They are upset as Khattar didn’t use to meet them. The people are angry due to his strong measures against farmers. He will bring more anti-incumbency as farmers have threatened to protest. The farmers have stopped the cars of BJP leaders at several places,” he said.
The BJP would have been in a better position if it had removed Khattar two years ago, this leader said. “Saini will pay the price of Khattar’s (anti-incumbency).”
Rohtak-based veteran journalist Satish Tyagi said that Saini would not make much difference as he is “a newcomer and he has no pan-Haryna image”.
“So ultimately, the BJP will have to bank on its ]track record of getting together OBC, upper caste votes as well as the heft of individual candidates. The division in OBCs will make the BJP vulnerable this time as a large block of Jats and Dalits can go with the Congress,” he told ThePrint.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
