Gurugram: Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assumed power for the first time on its own at the national level under Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, the party has relied a lot on his massive rallies to win assembly elections in states, particularly, Haryana.
With his 10 rallies in the state ahead of the 2014 assembly election, Modi catapulted the BJP in Haryana from a party that used to get single-digit assembly seats to one that formed the government on its own for the first time with 47 seats in the 90-member state assembly.
The BJP in Haryana also relied on Modi in 2019, but his rallies decreased to six. With the BJP winning 40 assembly seats in 2019, Modi helped it return to power but only with a post-poll alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which won 10 seats.
This time, before Haryana goes to polls on 5 October, Modi has addressed only four rallies in Haryana, raising many eyebrows. The declining trend of his rallies raises questions about the underlying factors shaping the BJP campaign strategy in Haryana.
“This trend reflects a strategic shift as the BJP navigates rising anti-incumbency sentiments and internal party dynamics. The party appears to be relying more on established local machinery rather than Modi campaigning in person, especially as they face challenges from a resurgent Congress and pressing local issues,” Jyoti Mishra, a researcher at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi, said.
Mishra said that the trend also indicates that local candidates have assumed more importance among Haryana voters than Modi — a stark contrast to the 2014 elections when Modi’s presence was a significant draw, according to the Lokniti-CSDS data.
“This shift suggests that now, voters are prioritising local issues and leadership over national figures, prompting the BJP to focus on grassroots strategies and community engagement. As a result, the emphasis on local leaders may significantly influence the electoral landscape in Haryana’s upcoming assembly elections,” she added. “The BJP’s ability to connect with voters through local representatives and address regional concerns will be critical in determining its success, potentially reshaping the dynamics of Haryana politics in 2024.”
Kushal Pal, the principal of Indira Gandhi National College in Haryana’s Ladwa and former coordinator of the Lokniti Haryana CSDS in Delhi, said that the fact that the BJP is facing a “strong” anti-incumbency is known not just among people but also the central leadership of the BJP.
“Ten rallies in 2014 was understandable because the BJP was to establish its stronghold in Haryana for the first time. In 2019, the assembly polls took place just three months after the BJP, in the wake of the Balakot airstrikes, swept the North in the Lok Sabha polls, winning all ten LS seats in Haryana. Modi still addressed 10 rallies in the state. With the ruling party losing five out of ten seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, there is little left for the BJP to recover in the assembly polls now,” he said.
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Modi in 2014: The beginning of BJP’s ascendency
Ahead of the 2014 Haryana assembly elections, Modi held 10 rallies in a high-energy campaign fuelled by his national election momentum.
The BJP, at the time, aimed to establish a significant foothold in a state traditionally dominated by regional parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and the Congress.
Before being handpicked by the BJP to lead its government in Gujarat in October 2001, Modi was in charge of the party affairs in Haryana. Modi’s rallies, known for their massive crowds and strong rhetoric, played a pivotal role in galvanising voters towards the BJP in the state, contributing to the party winning an unprecedented 47 out of 90 seats in 2014.
Haryana’s political landscape was going through a transformation as well. Voter disenchantment with the Congress and infighting within the INLD opened a window of opportunity for the BJP, and the party seized it. Modi’s multiple rallies in 2014 tapped into urban and rural voter bases and gave the party a much-needed push.
The 2014 election was as much about Modi’s national appeal as it was about local governance issues. After the BJP’s win, Modi made his handpicked Manohar Lal Khattar Haryana’s first BJP chief minister.
Fewer rallies in 2019 when BJP was aiming 75-paar
In 2019, after Modi returned to power at the Centre, with a record 303 seats, a buoyant BJP government in Haryana under Khattar was aiming for 75-paar — more than 75 seats in the 90-member Lower House.
Modi, in 2019, reduced his number of rallies in Haryana to six. By this time, the BJP had solidified its position in the state, and Modi’s national stature had further grown. The BJP, under the leadership of CM Khattar, was already seen as the frontrunner in the 2019 assembly election. Hence, Modi’s rallies focused on regions where the BJP faced stiff competition or the base needed energising.
While the BJP’s seat tally in Haryana fell to 40 in that election, Modi’s rallies were still considered instrumental in securing the party’s re-election, albeit in a coalition with the JJP.
In 2024, with his charisma dwindling, Modi held only four rallies. Political analysts attribute this declining trend to ground realities and the BJP’s political strategy and evolving approach to state-level elections.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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