JD(U) leaders largely blame the BJP’s strategy—including the arrest of CM Hemant Soren and a campaign based on allegations of Bangladeshi “infiltration” led by leaders from outside the state without adequate local voices—for the defeat.

The BJP, meanwhile, has cited the JMM-led government’s Maiya Samman scheme for women as a reason for the defeat. It also blamed another ally, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), for failing to garner support from the Kudmi community against the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JKLM)’s Jairam Mahato, who emerged as a giant-killer in the elections.

Mahato’s JKLM played a key role in some Kudmi Mahato community-dominated assembly seats, denting the AJSU’s prospects in at least six constituencies, and hurting the BJP in at least 10 more. The AJSU has not reacted to the BJP charge yet.

“The party will deliberate to find out the reason behind the defeat. But primarily two reasons came out. The first was the government’s Maiya Samman scheme, the impact of which was felt among women voters,” BJP state president Babulal Marandi told ThePrint.

“And the second was the entry of young leader Jairam Mahato, who took the Kudmi votes. The AJSU wasn’t able to protect the Kudmi vote bank, which led to the huge loss of more than a dozen seats in the assembly,” he added.

The BJP has called a review meeting to analyse the reasons for its loss. It has asked state leaders to submit a detailed report on the defeat after speaking to candidates for the 3 December central leadership meeting.

BJP general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santhosh will look at the reasons for the defeat in the state the BJP was expecting to win. Senior leaders Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Himanta Biswa Sarma have also been asked to present a fact-finding report before the meeting.

Ahead of the central meeting, the state BJP leadership has also called all district presidents and candidates for a state-level party meeting on 30 November and 1 December to review the reasons for the election defeat.

‘BJP needs serious introspection’

JD(U) leaders said arresting CM Soren was a big mistake as it alienated people and consolidated tribal communities in his favour. To make things worse, they said, the BJP’s campaign wasn’t in sync with ground realities and its focus on “infiltration” from Bangladesh lacked the backing of local leaders in affected areas.

“The decision to arrest Hemant Soren was a bad decision. The message did not go well. At that time too, I had pointed out that such small issues should not be pressed, as raising these matters could bring others from the past into the picture,” said Saryu Roy, who won from Jamshedpur West on a JD(U) ticket.

“But BJP leaders did not listen to my words. When efforts were made to destabilise the government, I had warned that it could boomerang, leading people to believe that the BJP wants to destabilise the government at any cost,” he added.

Roy said Soren played his cards well after his release from jail. “After coming out of jail, he played politics very maturely,” he said.

The government’s welfare scheme for women also played a critical role in the elections, he said. “His [Soren’s] Maiya Samman Yojana giving financial benefits to women changed the game,” Roy said.

Under the scheme, women from lower-income families receive financial support of Rs 1,000 a month, and the INDIA bloc had promised to raise this to Rs 2,500 in its manifesto.

Roy said BJP leaders made another strategic mistake by trying to drum up support on the “infiltrator” issue. He explained that when he met Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, who was in charge of the Jharkhand campaign, he had suggested that the voice on “infiltration” issues should come from the affected community.

“If you speak from Assam or a BJP leader speaks from Ranchi, the seriousness of the matter won’t be conveyed unless the voice comes from affected people. But attention was not given to this point.”

Roy told ThePrint the BJP needed some “serious introspection” on why it had lost its major vote bank in the state and why it was defeated in the tribal belt and other areas.

For the JD(U), the loss in Jharkhand has wider ramifications for the Bihar assembly elections due next year. The party has already upped the ante in Bihar, where it has raised objections to BJP leader Giriraj Singh’s yatra in the state’s Seemanchal region, where the Muslim population is significantly higher than elsewhere.

JDU(U) chief Nitish Kumar, while presiding over an NDA meeting in Bihar last October, had emphasised the importance of maintaining communal harmony, regardless of whether Muslims vote for the NDA or not.

Also Read: Clean sweep by NDA in Bihar assembly bypolls leaves RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in a tight spot

BJP leaders blame senior leadership

A major factor behind the BJP’s defeat in the Jharkhand elections was its poor performance in 28 constituencies reserved for tribals and one general seat where Mahato weakened the NDA significantly. The BJP managed to win just one of the 28 seats while the INDIA bloc swept 27 of the reserved seats.

For the BJP, the big defeats were Bermo, Bokaro, Chandankiyari, Chhatarpur, Giridih, Kanke, Kharsawan, Nirsa, Sindri and Tundi, where Jairam Mahato had a significant influence. The Mahato factor was also responsible for the AJSU’s losses in Ichagarh, Ramgarh, Silli, Dumri and Gomia. In Tamar, the JD (U)’s Gopal Krishna Patar,  aka ‘Raja Peter’, also lost, largely due to Mahato’s influence.

Some BJP leaders blame the senior leadership for failing to realise the extent of Mahato’s influence.

“We had not anticipated the impact of Jairam Mahto before the polls. It was a big failure on the part of the leadership. Only because of Jairam Mahato did his party candidate, Samundar Pahan, take way 26,827 votes from us,” the BJP’s Ram Kumar Pahan, who fought from the Khijri seat, told ThePrint.

“The AJSU alliance did not help the BJP as tribal votes consolidated in favour of the INDIA bloc after Hemant Soren’s arrest, which helped gain sympathy. Their Maiya Samman scheme also helped in consolidating support of women in favour of the JMM. Hemant Soren was on a strong wicket, unlike the BJP,” he added.

Pahan said that Nilkanth Munda, who had won from the ST-majority Khunti seat five times, lost this time because of the consolidation of tribal votes against him, the BJP’s wrong strategy and the JMM’s welfare policy.

Koche Munda, the BJP candidate who lost from the Torpa constituency, said a new concern has arisen in this election: Even general-category voters turned away from the BJP and supported the JMM and Congress.

“That is why the INDIA bloc has improved its tally in general seats. The BJP should be more concerned about general constituencies as tribals are unlikely to vote for the party. The BJP leadership should introspect on why general voters, who had backed them in the past, have not chosen the Congress,” he added.

Some BJP leaders even blamed many party observers, who they said only stayed in hotels and did not work on the ground as expected, while in many places Independents did not help the BJP either.

Shradhanand Besra, who lost from Simdega, told ThePrint there were different reasons for different seats but the common reason was the Maiya scheme, the electricity waiver scheme and the Abua housing scheme, which played a significant role.

The state government’s Abua Awas Yojana provided housing for the homeless. Under the electricity waiver scheme, the JMM government provided 200 units of free electricity and promised to waive off all old electricity dues of the poor who do not file income tax returns.

“In many places, JMM cadres told voters that if they didn’t vote for the alliance, their part payment in the Abua housing scheme would not be reimbursed. In my seat, an independent candidate ditched us and took money from the INDIA alliance, which contributed to my defeat. Internal sabotage was another reason behind my defeat,” he added.

In Simdega, the Congress party’s Bushan Bara defeated the BJP’s Shradhanand Besra by 9,228 votes.

Samir Oraon, head of the BJP’s ST Morcha who contested from Bishnupur, told The Print, “In my constituency, the women’s vote bank shifted by 25,000 votes to the JMM as their schemes created a huge dent in the BJP’s vote bank. Another contributing factor was the electricity bill waiver scheme.”

(Edited by Sugita Katyal)

Also Read: Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren stomps to victory in stronghold Barhait, beats BJP rival Hembrom