Chandy Oommen was conspicuous by his absence in Palakkad, but for a single-day appearance. “Chandy was in the list of star campaigners. And he was not the only Congress MLA not given specific charge for the by-polls. Uma Thomas (Thrikkakkara MLA) didn’t have any charge either,” said Jyothikumar Chamakkala, who held the office charge for the party in Palakkad.

The Puthuppally MLA’s grouse with Vadakara MP Shafi Parambil and Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkootathil has links to the legacy of his late father and former chief minister Oommen Chandy, and how Parambil seems to be positioning himself as the stalwart’s political successor.

Mamkootathil, after replacing Parambil as the Youth Congress president, also succeeded him as the Palakkad MLA, winning by a whopping margin of 18,000 votes last month.

Both Parambil and Mamkootathil have been working in tandem with Satheesan, who has been able to hollow out the erstwhile Chandy faction. In fact, Chandy Oommen’s outburst is seen as a sub-plot to the larger game underway in the Congress unit in Kerala.

Old guard versus new leadership

Soon after the results of the by-polls got declared in November last week, the media in Kerala began speculating about a change of guard at the KPCC.

That K Sudhakaran, the Kannur MP and Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief, was nudged to seek re-election in the Lok Sabha polls was seen as a signal by the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) to replace him at the opportune time. It was also speculated that Sudhakaran would be given an honourable exit after the by-polls, with a year left for the local body polls, and the assembly election to follow that.

Sudhakaran’s health issues have caused enough embarrassment for the Congress in the past, and even Satheesan prefers a change of personnel to consolidate his leadership. Understandably, Satheesan would have his say as LOP (along with Congress general secretary K.C. Venugopal) on who Sudhakaran’s replacement would be, as the party seeks to mount a comeback in Kerala after two consecutive terms out of power.

There is a sentiment within the Congress that the party should get a Christian face as the PCC chief to bolster its base among the community, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aggressively courting the community. Satheesan is in favour of choosing a new face, and he has been grooming youngsters close to him.

However, no sooner had Kerala’s news channels began the speculation of a change in leadership, the veterans began to throw their lot behind Sudhakaran’s continuation. From Chennithala, Muraleedharan to Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor, all CM aspirants sprang to the Kannur strongman’s defence, ruling out the need for a change at all.

Even Sudhakaran seems averse to step down for the moment, despite having offered to do so on earlier occasions. His wish to continue isn’t surprising, although the reasons for veterans coming to his defence isn’t straightforward.

In fact, they fear that Satheesan will become stronger if a new face is catapulted into the role of the PCC chief. They anticipate Satheesan getting absolute control over the party in Kerala and their own sidelining. In fact, Tharoor suggested that the elevation of Satheesan and Sudhakaran came as a “package” and a replacement of either one of them wasn’t logical.

Also Read: A showdown in Kerala Congress expected after LS elections. K Sudhakaran at the heart of it

Changing equations

Satheesan’s elevation as LOP itself remains a contentious issue within the Congress even today. An ailing Oommen Chandy’s last political gambit after the previous assembly election was to throw his lot behind Chennithala, asking the legislators of his faction to back his rival’s continuation as LOP.

That, however, wasn’t acceptable to the likes of Shafi Parambil and T. Siddique, and they chose to back Satheesan instead. Even Oommen Chandy’s trusted lieutenant Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan parted ways with the former CM in its wake, and it is under such a cloud that Satheesan was declared as LOP in 2021.

Chennithala had felt cheated by the AICC’s decision to replace him, despite having more legislators supporting him than Satheesan, saying he would have voluntarily stepped aside had the central leadership not conducted a farcical show of hands.

He has been biding his time hoping to stake claim for the KPCC chief’s post whenever a vacancy arose, only to lose his chance after the poor showing of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra where he was the Congress in-charge. Moreover, Chennithala being a Nair like Satheesan, Venugopal and Tharoor would be held against him.

K. Muraleedharan, a former PCC chief and son of former CM K. Karunakaran is another popular candidate, but his being an upper-caste Marar brackets him with the Nair leaders.

‘A 60-year-old youth’

To Satheesan’s credit, he keeps abreast of the changing times and is known for being politically correct. And his election management–despite the limited sample size of five by-elections–is impressive. Taking on a behemoth Left apparatus requires deft management of personnel and resources, and Satheesan’s delegation of responsibilities and decision-making have come for praise from the youth faces in Congress.

Satheesan is also good at social engineering, and he has managed to nurture relations with community leaders and establish a line of communication. He has taken a leaf out of Pinarayi Vijayan’s playbook in this aspect, who, in turn, had adopted the template of former Congress chief minister Karunakaran.

Interestingly, Satheesan is seen as a representative of youth, despite turning 60 in May this year. Muraleedharan recently took a dig at Satheesan by referring to him as a “60-year-old youth primed to lead the party in 2026”.

According to veteran journalist George Podipara, Satheesan is considered relatively fresh because he has never been thrust into a leadership position despite representing the party continuously in the assembly from 2001.

Oommen Chandy’s biographer and Mathrubhumi veteran Sunnykutty Abraham isn’t quite as impressed: “Satheesan ends up betraying his emotions with his body language and mannerisms. That is not a good trait for a politician. Satheesan was a lone ranger in the party during Chandy’s tenure. It is a difficult transition for him.”

The Congress leader from North Paravur is not known for his ability to carry everyone along, something Chandy Oommen had flagged.

According to Abraham, Satheesan is the first recent Congress leader to assume a key position without rising organically through the ranks. “From Chennithala to K.C. Venugopal and now Shafi Parambil, all of them climbed through the rungs of Kerala Students Union and Youth Congress. And that remains a handicap for Satheesan even today,” he said.

Lack of consultations

Many seniors in the Congress worry that they would get sidelined if Satheesan establishes decisive control over the party. As such, they aren’t too happy about being kept in the dark on many issues.

Former minister and Oommen Chandy’s trusted aide K.C. Joseph had a slightly different take: “The party is doing better than earlier. However, it is true that there is a lack of consultation. It was decided some time ago that a 6-member leadership group–comprising general secretary in-charge Deepa Dasmunshi, United Democratic Front convener M.M. Hassan, Chennithala, Venugopal, Sudhakaran and Satheesan–would meet regularly to chalk out issues. That hasn’t happened.”

The PCC’s Political Affairs Committee (PAC) was meant to meet every month. But the PAC has also not met for months on end. “Earlier the PAC was a group of 20 top leaders. Now there are some three dozen-odd members, almost as big as the KPCC executive, making it somewhat redundant,” Joseph stated.

“Satheesan is simply doing what Chandy and Chennithala have done for long. Now, he and Venugopal call the shots. No wonder the veterans cannot come to terms with it,” explained veteran journalist Podipara.

A Congress insider begs to differ: “Even when Chandy and Chennithala or Antony and Karunakaran before that ran two parties under the same flag, things weren’t as bad. We all knew what was going on, as the top leaders would keep consulting each other and decisions were conveyed to the lower level.”

Venugopal factor

For all practical purposes, K.C. Venugopal is said to be acting as the “high command” of the party in Kerala today. While Deepa Dasmunshi is known to be a hands-on general secretary, it makes sense for Venugopal to control the party from Delhi than become a party in the current imbroglio.

“KC wouldn’t risk losing his clout in Delhi by becoming the KPCC president at this juncture as some people might imagine. He will, of course, come into the picture when election results are declared in 2026 as the veterans might back him to deny Satheesan his due,” stated N. Sreekumar, former resident editor of Congress mouthpiece Veekshanam.

Ticket distribution will be key. In 2021, more than 50 young faces were fielded, many of them were Venugopal nominees. The Congress general secretary enjoys the loyalty of the largest number of Congress leaders in Kerala today. Some leaders close to Satheesan are equally on good terms with Venugopal.

Sudhakaran’s future

Regardless of any change of guard at the top, many district congress committee presidents have been rated to be performing poorly, and a reorganisation is due. Among the big failures of Sudhakaran, his inability to carry out reorganisation at the block- and mandalam-levels have been held against him.

“Sudhakaran has demonstrated how he cannot carry out the party’s reorganisation in three years. It would be silly of us to expect him to accomplish that over the next six months or one year,” Congress veteran Cherian Philip, who works out of KPCC headquarters Indira Bhavan, stated.

Despite the various pulls and pressures, the Congress high command needs to take a decision on replacing the KPCC chief before leaving it too late. The tug-of-war between the old guard and the new leadership is set to continue until then.

(Edited by Tony Rai)

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