A senior state party leader acknowledged as much, telling ThePrint that the “party conducted an analysis of its defeat and got feedback from the ground too. We could not bring back the tribal vote in reserved seats, and the party lost certain sections of the backward class vote and Kurmis too”.

“As the Jharkhand unit poll is underway, the party has to pick a new state president as well. The party has to recalibrate the caste balancing strategy in the state after two straight defeats. If the leader of the opposition will be from the tribal community, then state president will have to be non-tribal, and vice-versa,” the leader said.

He further explained that since many senior leaders lost the Jharkhand assembly election, the talent pool is limited among tribal leaders and the party has to choose from among the handful if it has to continue its tribal outreach.

“These are the considerations because of which there is delay in picking the legislature party leader. We have to think from scratch again,” the Jharkhand BJP leader said.

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance INDIA won 56 of 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand this year, while the BJP-led NDA alliance won 24 seats.

When the first session of the Jharkhand assembly convened in early December, the BJP did not show any urgency in picking the legislature party leader as the central leadership was engaged in the Parliament session. Earlier, too, when state leaders had met the central leaders in Delhi for stock-taking on 3 December, the party had not moved on picking the legislature party leader for Jharkhand and the central leadership had instead asked the state leaders to concentrate on the state unit polls, according to sources in the BJP.

Aditya Sahu, BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP, told ThePrint: “The party has to think long term. It lost some backward caste votes, too, in the election and will have to keep everything in mind before finalising names.”

The question of tribals

Among tribal leaders, the only options for the BJP are Marandi, who won the state poll from a general seat (Dhanwar), and Champai Soren, who won from a reserved seat (Seraikella).

Currently, Jharkhand BJP’s working president is non-tribal Ravindra Rai. Most other prominent leaders in the party, from Amar Bauri to Nilkanth Munda, Bhanu Pratap Shahi and Biranchi Narayan, lost the state poll.

Speaking to ThePrint, a former state president of the party said: “In 2019, BJP had made course correction by inducting Marandi and made him leader of the opposition first and state president later. The party fought under Marandi’s leadership in the 2024 lok Sabha polls and assembly election but did not get the expected support from tribals. BJP won only one assembly seat from 28 reserved tribal seats, and lost all 5 tribal seats in the Lok Sabha polls.”

“The party in the past 5 years has kept its entire focus on tribal outreach but the community ultimately voted for JMM leader Hemant Soren. Now, the dilemma is whether to keep wooing the tribals which make up a sizeable 28 percent of the population but are totally tilted in the JMM’s favour, or protect its core migrant, upper caste and OBC vote-banks, which are showing movement from the BJP to Congress and JMM in several areas,” he added.

According to the former state unit chief, for the next 5 years, the BJP has to fight aggressively against the JMM and there is scope for promoting and experimenting with new leadership in the state. “But another thought in the party is that if we let go of the tribal segment, it may hurt us in other states. That is why the party is taking time to pick names for both state president and legislature party leader,” said the leader.

Rai, too, told ThePrint that “tribals constitute an important segment in Jharkhand, and the party can’t abandon them. The state was formed for tribals. So we will have to balance and accommodate tribals and non-tribals in the two posts, but the decision will ultimately have to be taken by the high command”.

Also Read: Jairam ‘Tiger’ Mahato makes electoral debut, damages BJP ally AJSU in 6 seats in Jharkhand

JMM takes digs

As the BJP dithers over its legislature party leader pick, the ruling JMM has been taking digs at the opposition party. The JMM first suggested that the BJP appoint Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as leader of opposition in Jharkhand.

“We wish the BJP would appoint Himanta Biswa Sarma as leader of opposition. We will welcome him as he has spent more time in Jharkhand than Assam in recent months,” JMM general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya told the media two weeks ago.

The JMM took a jibe after the assembly session too, asking the BJP to either announce the opposition leader’s name or elect JMM turncoat Champai Soren to the post.

JMM spokesperson Manoj Pandey told the media in Ranchi: “BJP has not been able to select the leader of the opposition. Its compulsion is to pick someone from among its 21 MLAs who have won the state election. If there is no qualified MLA in the BJP, then BJP MLAs should accept Champai Soren as their leader.”

“If there is a problem in accepting his leadership, then (Ranchi MLA) C.P. Singh or Babulal Marandi, who abused PM Narendra Modi for 15 years, should be accepted. Make him the leader of the legislature party so that the government can quickly fill key posts in those constitutional institutions where appointment is necessary with the leader of the opposition’s consultation,” he added.

BJP’s fortunes in Jharkhand & Mahato factor 

In Jharkhand, the BJP’s decline has been continuous. In the 2014 assembly polls, the party had won 37 seats and formed a government along with the AJSU. In the 2019 polls, it won just 25 seats and the number fell further to 21 in the state election this year.

A major factor behind the BJP’s defeat this year was its poor performance in the 28 constituencies reserved for tribals. It could win just one.

In 2019, the JMM-Congress alliance had won 25 of the 28 reserved seats whereas the BJP won only two.

Tribals account for around 28 percent of the population in Jharkhand, with their influence spreading across 21 of 24 districts in the state.

In 2014, the BJP had come to power in Jharkhand by scoring big in the tribal belt. It had won 11 reserved seats while the JMM secured 13 and the AJSU got two.

In 2019, the Raghubar Das-led BJP government was toppled amid a tribal backlash. The Hemant Soren-led JMM consolidated the tribal votes in that election on the promise of implementing the 1932 Khatiyan Bill, which holds 1932 identity and land records as state domicile criteria, and Sarna as a separate religious code for the tribals.

This year, the BJP not only lost the tribal belt but Kurmi votes too, due to the Jairam Mahato factor. The 29-year-old PhD student, a Kurmi leader, has emerged as a prominent OBC face in Jharkhand. Going by unofficial estimates, Kurmis make up 12-14 percent of Jharkhand’s population.

Mahato’s Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM) hurt the NDA’s chances in 16 seats—for BJP alone in Bermo, Bokaro, Chandankiyari, Chhatarpur, Giridih, Kanke, Kharsawan, Nirsa, Sindri and Tundi, and for AJSU in Ichagarh, Ramgarh, Silli, Dumri and Gomia. In Tamar, JD(U)’s Gopal Krishna Patar or ‘Raja Peter’ lost due to Mahato’s influence.

A second Jharkhand BJP leader told ThePrint: “We had not anticipated the impact of Jairam Mahato before the polls. It was a big failure on the part of the leadership. He was asking for only five seats to contest from (in pre-poll talks with BJP) but we did not anticipate the young leader’s impact and chose to rely on the AJSU.”

“The BJP earlier relied on its own Kurmi leaders such as Shailendra Mahato, Ram Tahal Choudhary and Abha Mahto but in the last decade, the party outsourced Kurmi support to AJSU and did not cultivate the Kurmi leadership. We thus lost the Kurmi vote-bank while the tribals have opted for the JMM. Many backward sections too did not support us,” he added.

A tradition

Historically, the BJP in Jharkhand has rotated the posts of state president and legislature party leader between tribals and non-tribals.

In 2009, Das, who is from the OBC community, was state president and Arjun Munda, a tribal, was leader of the legislature party. An exception was made in 2014, when both posts had been given to non-tribals.

Ahead of the 2019 assembly election, the BJP was back to dividing the two posts within the two groups. Laxman Gilua, a tribal, was made state president while Das was chief minister and legislature party leader.

After defeat in the 2019 elections, an alarmed BJP leadership decided to bring back Marandi, and he was made legislature party leader while Deepak Prakash from the non-tribal group was made state president.

The party in July 2023 picked Marandi as state president and Amar Bauri was made leader of the opposition.

But in this election, Bauri lost and the senior-most MLA in the legislature party from among the tribals is Marandi. Soren can also be picked as leader of the opposition but it all depends on whether the party still has faith in Marandi.

C.P. Singh is another experienced face from the non-tribal group and can lead in the assembly. Neera Yadav, an OBC, is another contender.

“Many senior leaders lost the state election and old-timers did not prove their mettle. It’s now the best time to give the reins to a new leadership and groom leaders apart from Marandi, Munda and Das,” a state BJP vice-president told ThePrint.

(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)

Also Read: How family members of Hemant Soren & 4 former Jharkhand CMs are faring this election