No one dominated on the hard courts in men’s tennis like Rafael Nadal did on clay. Likewise, none have thus far dominated reigns on the hard courts much like Iga Swiatek on the red dirt. But Aryna Sabalenka could likely build that reputation for herself when she begins her campaign at the Melbourne Park starting Sunday. The two-time defending women’s champion, who hasn’t lost a match at the Australian Open since a fourth-round exit in 2022 against Kia Kanepi, will be eye to complete a historic three-peat in Melbourne, which the sport hasn’t witnessed since Martina Hingis in 1997-99. However, the road ain’t going to be easy for the Belarusian as she will need to steer past two of Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina to do so.
FIRST QUARTER
Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed, has been handed a difficult draw in Melbourne. It will be former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in round one, potentially 29th seed Linda Noskova, who shocked Swiatek in first week last year in the tournament, in round three, followed by 14th seed Mirra Andreeva, who beat Sabalenka in the French Open last year, in the pre-quarters. Not to forget, she has a projected quarterfinal against fifth seed Zheng Qinwen – a rematch of the 2024 final.
Quarterfinal: Sabalenka beats Zheng
SECOND QUARTER
Gauff was stunned by compatriot and rising star Emma Navarro in the fourth round of the US Open, where the American struggled with her serve. But she bounced back fiercely within weeks to end the season with a WTA 1000 in Beijing and the WTA Finals, en route to which she took down both Sabalenka and Swiatek in straight sets, and then inspired USA to a United Cup win this month.
Gauff does find herself in the same half of the draw as Sabalenka, implying a blockbuster semifinal clash is on the cards, but her road to the big match is filled with early threats. The No. 3 seed will begin her campaign against former Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin, who beat her at the Wimbledon last year, and could run into one between one of 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko, 20th seed Karolina Muchova, or Naomi Osaka in the fourth round before potentially setting up a quarterfinal clash against Jessica Pegula, who made the Adelaide final this week.
The three-time quarterfinalist in Melbourne could face a stiff test in the third round against 25th seed Liudmila Samsonova, and one between 11th seed Paula Badosa or 17th seed Marta Kostyuk in the fourth round.
Quarterfinal: Gauff beats Pegula
THIRD QUARTER
Despite the presence of Rybakina, a former finalist in Melbourne, it is Italy’s Jasmie Paolini (4), who is the highest seeded player in this section of the draw. The 29-year-old had made back-to-back Slam finals at the Roland Garros and Wimbledon last year, and she does have the edge over the big-serving Kazakh, a potential quarterfinal threat, with a 3-2 head-to-head record, including wins in both their last two meetings.
However, Rybakina, despite a hot-and-cold run in Slams since her maiden haul in Wimbledon in 2022, will carry her sublime form from United Cup and look to steer through the opening week amid a rather comfortable draw. Poalini, on the other hand, will have to likely deal with 28th seed Elina Svitolina in the third round and 15th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in round four.
Quarterfinal: Rybakina beats Paolini
FOURTH QUARTER
Swiatek may not have enjoyed a great outing in Melbourne, with just one semifinal appearance to show, and is yet to win a WTA title since retaining her French Open crown last year, but 2025 Australian Open does present her with the opportunity to take it deep into the second week. Her closest threats are No. 26 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round, 13th seed Anna Kalinskaya in the fourth round and Navarro, US Open run last summer, in the quarters.
Quarterfinal: Swiatek beats Navarro
Semifinal: Gauff beats Sabalenka; Rybakina beats Swiatek
Final: Gauff beats Rybakina.
