New Delhi: Having turned the corner in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had everything going for it in Haryana. The party had the momentum in its favour; it was ahead of its rivals in the perception game, political narratives were working to its advantage; and it ran its campaign with aggression and vigour.
The occasional sceptics did point out that the Congress’ confidence may have been bordering on complacency. That it could have avoided putting all eggs in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s basket; that it could have done more to mollify a sulking Kumari Selja, the party’s veteran Dalit face in the state.
But the Congress remained upbeat. It was eager to prove that its performance in the general elections was not a fluke, but a clear sign of a shift in the country’s political mood. The rosy picture painted by nearly all the exit polls, telecast last Saturday, prompted the Congress to order boxes of sweets and keep ‘dhol’ players ready on the morning of counting day at its New Delhi headquarters.
On Tuesday, by 9 a.m., as the initial rounds of counting gave a clear lead to the party, the sweets were had, as hordes of Congress workers and supporters grooved to drum beats. Over the next two hours though, as the BJP edged past, jubilation gave way to despondency. The drummers quietly walked out.
It was time for a reality check for the Congress, for which Himachal Pradesh will remain its sole outpost in the plains of North and central India, where it has not won a single state poll since 2018. The BJP is not just retaining power in Haryana, but doing so with 48 seat—the highest tally it ever had in the state.
The Congress’ vote share may have increased by 10 percentage points, but it was settling with 37 seats, well below the halfway mark of 46 in the 90-member legislative assembly.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress is forming a government with its bigger alliance partner National Conference. But its own tally had halved from 12 to 6 seats, with the BJP nearly sweeping the Jammu division where the Congress was hoping to gain a few seats. So what explains this major blow to the Congress?
The Congress’ first official response, which came at 5 p.m., was a reflection of the sheer shock of the defeat.
“We have received very serious complaints on the process of counting, the functioning of EVMs in at least three districts. There are more coming in. The result goes against ground reality and what the people of Haryana had made their mind up for. Under these circumstances, it is not possible for us to accept the results that have been announced today,” Congress communication head Jairam Ramesh said in a press conference.
“What we have seen today in Haryana is a victory for manipulation, the victory of subverting the will of the people and a defeat for transparent democratic processes.”
Selja, meanwhile, did not hide her disappointment with the poll results. “Our workers worked for so long, we went to villages with the message of Rahul Gandhi, but after the results, it looks like all their efforts have gone to waste. The party needs to see this, the party will introspect. Such results should not have come. At times, we need to be silent…,” she told news agency ANI.
Political researcher Asim Ali told ThePrint that the Congress could have paid the price for giving the Hooda family a free run in the lead up to the elections, be it in campaigning across Haryana, or distribution of tickets, stripping the party of its umbrella character that helps manage “caste and sub-regional equations”. After all, as many as 72 of the 90 candidates were of Hooda’s choice.
The overreliance on the Hoodas may have offered the BJP a window to consolidate its core votes comprising the upper castes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs), while also chipping away at the Congress’ Dalit base.
The nearly six percent vote share obtained by the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party (INLD-BSP) alliance also may have come entirely at the Congress’ expense, along with the over 11 percent vote share of Independents made up primarily of dissidents.
“What may appear as infighting in a party like the Congress actually helps the party balance caste and community equations. For instance, in the 80s, the Bhajan Lal and Bansi Lal-led groups were the competitive factions in the Congress. It was followed by the Bhajan Lal and BS Hooda camps in the 90s,” Ali said.
“After Bhajan Lal, the anti-Hooda camp was taken over by the likes of Kumari Selja, Randeep Surjewala, Kiran Choudhry. But in recent years, the Congress, perhaps jolted by the possibility of Hooda revolting as he was also a part of the G-23 grouping, gave in to him,” he explained.
Going ahead, the Congress high command and the authority of the Gandhis will once again face intense questioning, an aspect which was missing in the last few months as the party revelled in its better-than-expected success at the Lok Sabha hustings. It will walk into the campaigning for the next round of polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra fettered with doubts.
Seat-sharing talks with alliance partners in Jharkhand, where the Congress is in an alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and in Maharashtra with the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) will be arduous.
In Delhi, where assembly elections are due next year, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will leave no opportunity to taunt the Congress over not allying with it in Haryana. It is another matter that the AAP failed to open its account in the northern state.
“The biggest lesson of this is that one should never be overconfident in the elections…No election should be taken lightly. Each election and each seat is tough,” AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal said, as the poll results showed the BJP inching towards victory in Haryana.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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