Mumbai: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘ek hain, toh safe hain’ or ‘together, one is safe’ slogan has riled Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) allies in Maharashtra. His remark in Dhule came despite Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) Ajit Pawar publicly objecting to the slogan’s original version—‘batenge, toh katenge’ or ‘divided, we fall’—as repeated by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath while campaigning in Maharashtra. Pawar said such remarks are not appreciated in Shivaji’s land.
The Shiv Sena is equally queasy about the PM’s remarks, with party sources echoing Deputy CM Pawar’ line of arguments—that ‘polarising politics’ doesn’t work in Maharashtra and it might rather dilute the central poll plank of the government’s developmental and welfare schemes.
Muslims play a decisive role in swinging results in at least 30 constituencies and “it’s a hell of a lot” in a “tight election” with so many players, multiple NCP and Shiv Sena sources told ThePrint in Mumbai.
BJP strategists have a different outlook even though they are convinced that the so-called ‘vote jihad’, or en masse voting for the opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—which consists of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar-led NCP and the Congress—by Muslims hurt them in “at least eight Lok Sabha seats” in 2024 election.
In Dhule constituency, for instance, the BJP candidate Subhash Bhamre led in five out of six assembly segments. He led by 1.90 lakh votes over his Congress rival, Shobha Bachhav, in these five assembly segments. In the sixth assembly segment, Malegaon Central, however, Bhamre trailed his Congress rival by 1.94 lakh votes, which led to his defeat in the Lok Sabha seat by a little over 3,800 votes. Muslims constitute over 80 percent of the voters in Malegaon Central and the BJP candidate got just 4,542 votes in that constituency.
Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis has alleged that the MVA won at least 14 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats due to “love jihad”.
Given how the BJP saw such a threat from Muslim votes’ consolidation, why would it go for polarising slogans like ‘ek hai, safe hai’ and ‘batenge, toh katenge’? Because the same ‘vote jihad’ would have the opposite impact on the BJP’s prospects in the assembly election in Maharashtra, multiple party leaders involved in overseeing polls told ThePrint.
BJP’s course correction post LS polls
There were four things that, in their assessment, went against the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra. The first was the impact of what they called the Opposition’s propaganda about the BJP planning to change the Constitution, as allegedly reflected in its ‘400-paar’ slogan. The second was the resentment of the Marathas over the reservation stir. The third was the unease and unrest among party workers after Ajit Pawar’s entry into the ruling Mahayuti, which only compounded the frustration of those who were unhappy about the chief ministership going to Eknath Shinde and not Devendra Fadnavis. And the fourth was the minority consolidation in the MVA’s favour, which led to the party losing many seats by narrow margins.
Since July, the BJP has been trying to address these issues. The party’s assessment was that the Maratha agitation had agrarian distress underneath it. The BJP, therefore, set out to address the issues concerning soyabean, cotton and onions.
The Centre, for instance, imposed and raised customs duty on crude and refined soybean and other edible oils and also approved procurement of 13 lakh metric tonnes of soybean under the price support scheme. Restrictions on onion exports were eased.
“These measures have effectively blunted the Maratha reservation issue. You don’t find them agitating now. The issue wasn’t reservation; it was essentially about onions, cotton and soybean and we have taken several measures to help those farmers,” a senior BJP leader told ThePrint. “These are such touchy issues. Can you imagine that even the export of white onion, which was so miniscule, became an issue here (Maharashtra)?” he added. He was referring to the Centre’s decision in April to partially relax the ban on onion exports to facilitate immediate export of 2,000 tonnes of white onions grown in Gujarat.
As for the “propaganda” about changing the Constitution, the BJP has been making a massive outreach to the Dalits and the other backward classes (OBCs) all over Maharashtra since July. For example, Maharashtra election in-charge Bhupendra Yadav has held numerous one-on-one meetings with key representatives from the Mahars, Matangs, and other groups among the 57 castes and sub-castes within the Scheduled Caste category. He has made a similar outreach to the OBCs as well.
To woo Dalits, the BJP also held a series of rallies and yatras across the state. Union Law Minister Kiren Rijiju, a Buddhist, also spent several days in the state meeting Dalit Buddhists. “Dalits (read Dalit Buddhists) know that the BJP has appointed only the second Buddhist law minister after Ambedkar,” said a senior BJP functionary. The ‘propaganda’ about the Constitution is not an issue now, claimed another.
As for the unease among BJP cadre, they have been involved in a major way—from identifying issues to candidate selection—say senior party leaders. For instance, 10,000 workers from across the state were given parchis, or chits, to name two-three candidates for their constituency. Bhupendra Yadav held meetings with every district core committee to get their feedback. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw who is the BJP’s election co-incharge in Maharashtra, sits in the BJP office in Mumbai from 8 am till well past 10 pm, listening to party workers from across the state and carrying out their suggestions and demands.
“As for the Muslims, well, if their votes in one assembly constituency negated the votes of the people in five other assembly seats in the Lok Sabha, so be it. Let them vote the same way in the assembly election. Simply multiply the number of seats they can influence by five for the BJP,” said a party strategist.
Muslims constitute 11.54 percent of the population in Maharashtra, according to the 2011 Census. While the NCP and Shinde Sena are worried about the 30 or so seats that Muslims can swing in the MVA’s favour, the BJP is obviously looking for counter-mobilisation in the rest of the seats in favour of the Mahayuti. It may or may not work in a big way in Maharashtra, but it is expected to galvanise the BJP workers and sympathisers.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
Also read: In Maharashtra, Sangh Parivar seeks votes for Hindutva with ‘vote jihad’ warnings, sant sammelans
