Kolkata: Nottingham Forest have begun 2025 in contention for a Champions League spot. One year ago, that seemed as likely as Manchester City’s meltdown. Halfway through the Premier League season, Forest have accrued five points more than they did in all of 2023-24. And they are the only team to have defeated league leaders Liverpool.
Sunday’s 2-0 win at Everton was their eighth clean sheet, the most in the Premier League till December 31 this season. It was also their fifth win on the bounce. The last time that happened, in 1994-95, Forest sealed a berth in Europe. The last time they were this high in the standings, Forest finished third.
Of course, things can unspool from here. West Ham and Southampton have ended seasons in 12th place after being in the top four at Christmas. And who better than Forest to know all about burning brightly but all too briefly. Explains why even after Opta’s league prediction model calculated that Forest have 21.5% chance of finishing fifth, which could be enough for a Champions League slot should English clubs go deep this time, head coach Nuno Espírito Santo is not looking that far ahead.
“The table doesn’t mean anything,” the Portuguese said after Forest beat Tottenham Hotspur. “We haven’t achieved anything.” But in that post-match conversation, Santo also spoke of belief in the squad.
Belief that was in short supply when Santo, a 50-year-old polyglot, took charge in December 2023 replacing Steve Cooper who had got the club back in the top tier in 2022. Having finished 16th in their first season in the Premier League in 23 years, Forest were 17th in the standings with one win from 13 matches when Santo took over. The second half of last season was about surviving, he had said. That done, Santo assured the players that next season would be better.
That looked unlikely given how things were for the former champions of England and Europe. There was the matter of a bloated squad. Forest had signed 44 players since the summer of 2022 and had taken 13 more on loan. It led to four points being docked for financial foul play last term.
They were fined £750,000 for a social media post that questioned the integrity of the body that appointed match officials in the league and owner Evangelos Marinakis was given a five-match ban for spitting near match officials. In between, Mark Clattenburg was appointed and removed as refereeing consultant, whatever that meant. Small wonder then that Forest were tipped to go down or finish no higher than 15th this term.
But, somewhat like Xabi Alonso in Bayer Leverkusen’s second season, Santo has turned things around in Robin Hood country. Forest got tighter defensively. From leaking 67 goals last season, they have conceded 19 (from 19/38 games). That has happened with 27-year-old Nikola Milenković arriving from Fiorentina for only £12m.
The Serbia captain had won 79.4% of aerial duels, as per WhoScored, among 297 players who had contested 25 or more of them, which was the most in Serie A. His arrival solved Forest’s weakness in defending set-pieces and his partnership with Murillo in central defence has been key to Forest’s mean defence.
Milenkovic was not the only smart business they did and with Edu shifting from Arsenal in 2025 summer more of that is likely to happen. Elliot Anderson was another recruit, also got cheap as Forest recovered £20m by selling goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos. Anderson and Milenkovic combined to score in the win at Manchester United.
Santo’s Forest prefer staying compact in defence and try to hit teams with the pace of their wide players. Forest, as per FBRef, have 40.1% possession, the least in the league after Everton’s 38.7%. But it works alright for a team that can use the pace of Anthony Elanga – he has made 20 goal contributions since shifting from Manchester United in 2023 – and Callum Hudson-Odoi, the ability of Morgan Gibbs-White to go through the middle and have in Chris Wood a barrelling centre-forward capable of using the fleet-footed players around him.
With a goal and an assist on Sunday, Wood showed that he can pass as well. The 33-year-old New Zealand striker has 11 goals and one assist, and it will have to be seen if Forest can stave off interest from other clubs for the striker whose contract runs out next summer.
Santo’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation means two midfielders can sit deep and that helps Forest absorb pressure by deploying a low block as they did against Brentford. Forest are good without the ball and that is proof of players having bought into Santo’s way of playing. They could buy a striker as back-up for Wood and Taiwo Awoniyi, but look settled otherwise.
The club’s biggest challenge this month and in the summer could be finding the balance between making money from sales and pursuing a return to a European competition they won twice in two seasons.
